* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 42 47 49 49 49 49 50 50 51 54 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 42 47 49 49 49 49 50 50 51 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 47 50 51 53 56 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 7 7 9 7 4 12 18 20 18 15 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 -7 -8 -7 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 108 109 102 77 89 91 73 12 24 21 29 11 335 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 137 138 135 137 140 141 139 139 143 146 143 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 66 61 57 53 52 49 48 47 46 45 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 28 20 9 12 19 20 26 34 28 27 29 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 3 14 27 22 9 -25 -28 -39 -8 -24 -9 -17 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 797 747 703 667 641 669 784 914 988 1078 1208 1365 1535 1634 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.8 155.4 156.0 156.7 157.4 159.0 160.7 162.4 164.3 166.3 168.3 170.3 172.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 15 23 14 11 13 29 37 28 43 35 18 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 20. 21. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 154.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING