* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022015 07/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 50 53 53 53 51 52 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 50 53 53 53 51 52 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 45 49 53 55 56 58 61 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 9 7 11 9 8 6 17 17 21 16 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -8 -10 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 65 82 87 82 65 86 69 26 26 34 37 38 342 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 138 139 137 138 139 140 140 142 141 146 148 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 67 63 60 55 55 53 53 50 51 46 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 39 32 20 6 17 19 30 35 37 32 40 29 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -4 5 14 22 14 4 -20 -26 -19 0 -2 -20 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 850 814 782 746 719 708 779 904 1009 1091 1189 1311 1440 1550 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.4 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.0 155.5 156.1 156.8 157.5 159.0 160.5 162.0 163.6 165.2 166.9 168.7 170.4 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 14 22 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 12 16 15 12 12 19 39 43 36 38 19 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 23. 23. 21. 22. 22. 23. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 155.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.9% 17.8% 6.4% 4.0% 3.8% 5.6% 8.7% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##