* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 20 21 23 27 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 213 211 204 201 219 223 229 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 121 122 121 122 124 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 56 54 55 58 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 12 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 0 -3 -12 -31 -19 -21 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 19 15 0 9 5 19 16 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 8 7 9 9 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 837 764 703 645 599 486 372 285 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.9 148.8 149.8 150.7 152.7 154.8 157.0 159.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -5. -14. -21. -26. -27. -29. -29. -31. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. -23. -30. -35. -38. -39. -39. -39. -40. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 147.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##