* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 33 31 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 25 29 35 41 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 5 -1 7 2 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 241 228 221 218 219 208 217 218 224 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.8 25.9 25.7 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 123 121 125 124 125 128 131 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 65 63 59 55 55 56 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 13 9 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 40 28 24 22 14 3 -9 0 -12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 43 18 8 20 4 15 -4 16 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 11 8 10 6 5 7 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1060 941 828 717 618 466 332 263 231 360 577 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.2 151.5 154.0 156.6 159.2 161.7 164.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -16. -25. -31. -34. -35. -36. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -29. -36. -37. -38. -38. -40. -40. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 144.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##