* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022015 06/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 54 56 59 59 59 56 51 50 49 50 49 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 42 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 42 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 15 16 18 15 19 16 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 1 0 2 13 1 3 -2 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 278 284 260 243 256 233 251 255 270 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.9 28.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 148 143 139 136 138 151 145 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 130 127 121 116 113 115 126 120 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 11 11 11 6 9 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 61 62 62 58 59 53 53 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 15 17 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 0 -32 -25 0 -52 -19 -88 -65 -128 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 44 44 32 41 82 43 47 -5 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 2 -7 -3 0 18 15 23 41 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -2 -99 -192 -282 -380 -495 -563 -647 -711 -809 -878 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 29.9 30.9 31.8 33.4 34.6 35.6 36.7 38.0 39.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.1 97.5 97.6 97.6 96.9 95.4 93.6 91.4 88.7 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 6. 1. 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.2 96.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.4% 8.8% 6.3% 5.3% 8.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022015 BILL 06/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 42 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 42 38 36 35 34 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 40 39 38 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 37 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT