* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 66 66 67 67 64 62 60 59 57 57 56 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 66 66 67 67 64 62 60 59 57 57 56 58 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 8 7 7 0 7 6 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 0 -1 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 7 350 3 1 348 135 246 214 222 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 145 142 140 135 134 135 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 57 58 56 57 57 61 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -15 -11 -3 -11 13 18 46 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -8 -14 -4 -7 0 3 -21 15 -7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 114 122 113 98 86 83 84 109 141 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.5 104.9 105.3 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.7 106.9 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 19 14 10 8 7 5 4 6 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -7. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.3 103.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 22.2% 22.1% 17.0% 13.1% 15.4% 13.0% 11.1% Logistic: 3.3% 9.7% 5.3% 2.8% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 10.7% 9.1% 6.6% 5.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##