* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 59 59 61 63 64 64 64 64 63 62 62 62 63 65 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 59 59 61 63 50 38 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 57 57 59 48 37 34 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 8 11 7 8 1 2 8 11 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 36 22 4 21 14 36 236 163 213 209 229 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 156 154 148 145 143 145 144 134 123 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 64 64 64 62 59 63 60 64 60 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 1 -7 0 -26 -17 -13 -3 23 32 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 24 8 6 -5 -18 -8 -22 1 -7 7 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 84 90 89 68 64 39 -25 -15 -21 -37 -97 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.9 23.9 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.6 102.0 102.5 102.9 103.8 104.5 104.9 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.8 106.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 41 42 38 32 18 11 8 9 10 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.5 101.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 23.2% 22.5% 17.0% 13.5% 16.3% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.0% 7.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.6% 4.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##