* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 57 57 58 61 63 63 62 60 59 58 56 57 57 57 59 V (KT) LAND 60 57 57 57 58 61 60 39 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 54 54 56 49 37 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 4 7 8 2 4 9 12 15 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -2 0 0 2 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 42 48 11 359 30 1 180 233 202 226 232 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 159 156 150 144 140 142 140 134 125 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 64 63 61 61 61 63 62 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 10 0 -7 4 -19 6 0 34 29 52 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 30 20 3 7 6 -10 -2 -14 3 -2 11 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 80 76 82 78 31 0 -72 -30 -24 -33 -82 -134 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.8 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.1 101.5 102.0 102.4 103.2 103.9 104.5 105.0 105.2 105.4 105.7 105.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 35 39 41 39 21 10 6 7 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 100.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 26.0% 24.0% 17.8% 14.4% 17.3% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 11.0% 9.1% 6.3% 5.1% 6.0% 5.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##