* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 78 77 78 74 70 62 59 59 59 59 60 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 78 77 78 74 70 48 44 43 43 37 32 30 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 77 77 76 75 71 50 44 46 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 8 4 4 5 1 1 7 4 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 45 68 87 64 13 19 20 159 247 215 218 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 160 162 162 152 145 145 150 154 153 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 7 8 7 8 6 9 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 66 65 63 60 59 58 59 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 13 12 10 9 6 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 11 9 17 1 15 -1 4 -7 0 27 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 52 54 61 49 35 41 4 4 -13 -11 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 2 3 1 0 0 -1 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 159 146 134 121 109 108 46 15 -16 10 38 38 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.3 100.6 101.0 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.2 105.0 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 41 38 38 42 47 18 9 9 13 19 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -11. -15. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. -1. -5. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.3 100.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 35.1% 29.5% 22.8% 18.1% 20.9% 16.1% 13.1% Logistic: 5.1% 12.4% 8.8% 4.1% 2.1% 3.6% 1.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 33.5% 20.7% 9.1% 1.5% 11.1% 2.1% 0.2% Consensus: 10.0% 27.0% 19.7% 12.0% 7.2% 11.9% 6.7% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##