* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 56 57 61 65 64 68 66 60 56 53 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 56 57 61 65 64 68 66 60 56 53 50 49 46 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 52 54 53 51 48 46 44 42 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 16 16 13 7 6 1 1 2 9 12 18 21 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 8 4 2 2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 2 0 8 9 SHEAR DIR 49 41 39 42 41 40 42 17 22 13 161 189 198 172 192 191 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 157 160 159 152 147 146 145 137 137 133 126 116 107 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 72 68 69 68 64 62 62 60 58 57 54 49 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 19 19 19 16 18 15 11 8 6 4 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 50 50 40 39 49 31 23 9 23 2 7 -4 14 -9 15 1 200 MB DIV 68 78 73 62 58 40 59 47 56 27 2 -4 -44 5 -6 -2 -13 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 0 2 3 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 10 11 LAND (KM) 246 243 240 231 223 198 202 167 161 123 123 170 181 41 39 23 -20 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.4 20.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.6 100.7 100.8 101.0 101.6 102.5 103.6 104.6 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 39 38 36 31 24 16 11 10 9 5 5 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -1. -5. -11. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 15. 14. 18. 16. 10. 6. 3. -0. -1. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 100.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 25.7% 21.7% 15.7% 12.1% 18.5% 16.8% 16.2% Logistic: 1.8% 11.4% 3.6% 1.4% 0.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% Consensus: 4.4% 14.5% 9.2% 6.0% 4.2% 8.1% 7.2% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##