* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 69 77 82 80 81 78 80 74 70 63 62 60 60 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 69 77 82 80 81 78 80 74 70 63 62 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 62 66 73 75 76 77 78 78 73 65 59 56 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 9 9 14 15 10 6 4 0 3 2 9 11 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 11 10 13 7 4 3 1 0 4 11 7 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 27 29 11 50 42 44 56 38 31 346 76 99 95 117 131 169 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 155 157 158 160 161 154 148 143 141 141 135 131 134 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 73 72 74 71 71 68 65 61 60 61 60 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 20 22 20 23 19 17 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 45 36 42 58 51 59 40 46 25 33 10 22 0 26 16 200 MB DIV 110 98 84 80 77 62 49 52 39 30 49 21 10 7 -11 1 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 1 6 4 2 3 2 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 303 287 272 264 256 221 194 175 174 144 162 182 188 175 198 259 138 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.8 101.3 102.2 103.3 104.5 105.6 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 42 42 44 41 35 27 18 12 9 8 7 4 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 9. 6. 9. 5. 1. -4. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 32. 37. 35. 36. 33. 35. 29. 25. 18. 17. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 100.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 41.7% 31.3% 23.3% 15.5% 33.5% 29.4% 21.3% Logistic: 5.1% 27.8% 15.4% 7.1% 1.0% 12.4% 5.2% 10.8% Bayesian: 3.5% 41.9% 36.9% 23.9% 0.7% 15.4% 14.9% 1.1% Consensus: 7.9% 37.2% 27.9% 18.1% 5.7% 20.4% 16.5% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##