* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 116 108 99 77 53 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 119 116 108 99 77 53 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 117 111 101 89 67 48 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 13 12 17 15 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 5 4 4 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 143 157 147 143 132 137 182 201 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.9 25.2 22.8 22.0 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 138 131 122 115 90 82 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 59 60 57 56 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 33 32 28 23 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 64 69 63 56 36 21 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 24 20 -9 -31 -5 -12 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 2 0 -3 1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 485 456 368 285 140 65 40 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.4 22.3 24.1 26.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.3 110.6 111.2 112.0 112.7 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -30. -43. -54. -60. -66. -71. -73. -75. -78. -81. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -12. -24. -36. -36. -36. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -7. -16. -38. -62. -88.-111.-116.-120.-122.-123.-121.-119.-118.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.3 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.8% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##