* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 104 100 93 78 58 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 103 104 100 93 78 58 38 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 103 101 95 87 68 51 37 27 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 12 12 16 17 15 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 10 8 3 7 2 12 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 114 129 124 118 133 155 187 204 199 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 25.7 24.7 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 139 135 120 109 90 85 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 62 59 57 56 57 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 34 32 29 24 19 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 60 62 62 66 61 63 32 23 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 18 21 34 19 -47 -30 12 37 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 499 494 492 480 401 227 134 23 25 -73 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.3 21.0 22.7 24.5 26.1 27.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.3 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 14 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -36. -43. -51. -55. -57. -59. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -10. -18. -29. -36. -42. -40. -36. -33. -30. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 0. -7. -22. -42. -62. -82. -97.-111.-113.-113.-112.-112.-113.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 19.5% 19.1% 15.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.2% 11.6% 4.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.0% 10.7% 7.9% 6.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##