* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 26 24 21 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -3 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 234 236 236 228 202 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.0 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 85 85 85 85 89 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 37 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 30 22 11 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -4 -20 -49 -56 -26 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1282 1278 1275 1277 1279 1300 1308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 124.2 124.1 123.9 123.7 123.4 123.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -25. -26. -26. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -30. -41. -51. -59. -65. -71. -76. -80. -84. -87. -90. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##