* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 110 111 112 114 113 109 96 78 60 46 33 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 110 111 112 114 113 109 96 78 60 46 33 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 108 108 109 111 108 100 88 71 54 40 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 8 9 9 11 14 18 12 16 11 9 16 20 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 8 3 6 5 1 5 2 9 7 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 82 72 71 74 83 87 131 121 123 128 161 196 201 190 204 213 222 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.9 25.3 23.9 22.8 21.7 20.7 20.2 19.9 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 163 161 149 145 135 132 115 101 89 77 66 60 58 57 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 72 70 67 62 57 51 51 48 44 41 38 33 27 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 37 36 37 40 41 40 35 28 22 17 11 7 3 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 68 72 71 90 73 63 64 59 72 55 27 8 3 -2 3 200 MB DIV 101 91 91 108 86 104 64 29 1 -31 -29 -3 6 6 23 5 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 714 686 661 629 600 550 519 504 402 265 180 127 71 78 40 28 20 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.2 16.6 17.9 19.3 20.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.2 105.6 106.1 106.6 107.8 108.9 109.7 110.4 111.0 111.6 112.3 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 89 88 85 80 66 24 16 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -12. -20. -27. -34. -41. -46. -51. -57. -63. -71. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 2. -8. -16. -22. -27. -29. -30. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -1. -14. -32. -50. -64. -77. -88.-100.-107.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 11.9 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.78 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.5% 19.2% 14.3% 12.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 11.6% 4.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.7% 7.9% 5.5% 4.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##