* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 39 34 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 20 28 29 27 23 29 27 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 14 8 0 -2 0 2 0 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 258 242 240 241 221 215 198 194 164 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 91 89 90 89 87 87 88 93 100 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 49 45 39 34 30 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 32 36 35 26 29 17 25 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 5 -11 -26 -12 -14 -40 -14 2 -34 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 1 3 -2 -2 -6 -9 -11 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1370 1359 1344 1328 1305 1299 1275 1242 1167 1106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.3 19.0 18.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 125.4 125.4 125.2 125.0 124.5 124.1 123.4 122.6 121.5 120.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -26. -36. -47. -58. -68. -75. -81. -84. -87. -90. -92. -95. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 125.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##