* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 129 139 145 150 148 140 123 105 86 66 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 129 139 145 150 148 140 123 105 86 66 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 128 134 137 138 138 130 112 89 70 54 39 28 27 27 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 2 5 6 10 12 10 13 18 18 15 13 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 9 9 7 7 9 0 8 6 9 9 10 9 SHEAR DIR 270 194 170 111 82 103 140 114 135 125 132 161 188 164 181 188 214 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.2 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.3 23.9 23.8 23.0 21.6 20.6 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 163 164 165 156 143 136 128 115 100 98 90 75 65 60 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 77 74 71 69 65 62 57 55 55 52 45 36 29 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 34 37 38 40 39 37 32 27 19 13 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 41 54 63 70 71 101 98 93 62 54 47 65 46 32 11 13 10 200 MB DIV 153 159 131 102 107 109 82 58 5 8 -40 -37 -12 11 24 15 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 -2 -4 -2 0 -4 0 -5 0 LAND (KM) 644 635 627 604 582 513 443 394 379 294 133 26 -19 -39 28 42 23 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.4 15.8 17.3 18.8 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.9 106.9 108.0 108.9 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 4 5 7 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 95 94 94 91 88 77 41 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -12. -21. -28. -35. -41. -46. -50. -54. -59. -66. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 14. 12. 7. 2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 12. 10. 3. -4. -13. -19. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 14. 24. 30. 35. 33. 25. 8. -10. -29. -49. -72. -89.-101.-111.-119.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.5 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 23.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 17.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 15.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 12.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -12.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.89 7.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 99% is 15.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 17.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 98.9% 81.5% 77.9% 75.9% 71.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 93.5% 91.3% 87.1% 84.1% 80.2% 45.2% 3.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 88.3% 60.6% 89.2% 85.5% 53.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 93.6% 77.8% 84.7% 81.8% 68.2% 15.5% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##