* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 96 107 117 126 136 138 127 113 93 74 53 35 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 96 107 117 126 136 138 127 113 93 74 53 35 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 96 105 112 118 128 131 123 103 83 63 46 33 24 25 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 3 5 7 7 8 11 11 19 18 17 12 16 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -3 7 5 8 6 8 5 4 8 6 10 5 8 SHEAR DIR 60 303 250 155 118 107 121 124 137 150 132 151 177 176 169 202 226 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.8 28.5 27.4 27.2 25.6 24.9 23.4 23.3 22.3 20.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 162 163 166 162 149 137 135 118 111 94 93 83 66 61 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 84 81 80 76 71 68 65 62 58 54 54 51 48 44 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 32 34 35 38 41 38 39 33 29 22 15 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 52 56 62 85 104 94 88 55 52 45 63 32 24 -1 5 200 MB DIV 131 158 158 125 107 106 85 82 31 -26 -23 -28 -12 2 5 8 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 2 3 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 634 634 634 616 599 533 471 414 387 376 202 49 13 -14 -10 56 28 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.9 15.2 16.6 18.1 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.4 106.4 107.6 108.5 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 4 6 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 95 95 95 94 92 87 59 21 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 16. 8. 1. -7. -15. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 22. 32. 41. 51. 53. 42. 28. 8. -11. -32. -50. -64. -73. -82. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 12.6 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 20.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 18.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 12.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 13.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -15.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 94.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.91 9.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 5.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 91% is 14.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 14.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 20.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 78% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 91.1% 100.0% 96.6% 89.6% 86.0% 78.3% 47.0% 0.0% Logistic: 81.3% 90.1% 83.5% 76.2% 59.3% 51.1% 8.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 96.9% 98.0% 99.1% 98.6% 95.4% 94.6% 59.5% 0.4% Consensus: 89.8% 96.0% 93.1% 88.1% 80.2% 74.6% 38.3% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##