* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 76 87 99 110 124 133 129 120 103 85 66 49 26 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 76 87 99 110 124 133 129 120 103 85 66 49 26 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 75 86 96 107 126 134 127 113 90 68 51 36 25 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 0 2 6 13 9 11 15 12 17 20 15 12 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 -2 -3 7 9 9 3 8 5 1 5 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 6 342 106 59 189 153 80 129 105 144 146 133 157 162 138 146 145 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.7 28.4 27.1 26.2 25.4 25.0 23.3 21.9 21.4 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 163 165 161 148 134 125 116 111 93 78 73 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 85 83 77 72 68 68 65 60 53 46 38 29 25 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 25 29 34 39 38 39 34 29 22 16 2 3 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 26 42 58 68 86 110 98 81 53 61 50 49 23 19 1 200 MB DIV 93 116 117 139 152 88 115 90 75 29 -11 3 -15 -4 -8 18 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 3 -2 -1 -7 0 -7 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 578 585 592 597 602 579 525 461 383 348 351 183 59 44 33 4 70 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.2 14.1 15.4 16.8 18.3 19.8 21.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.9 105.6 106.5 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.6 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 4 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 96 95 96 96 96 93 82 47 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 23. 27. 21. 12. 4. -5. -19. -16. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 22. 34. 45. 59. 68. 64. 55. 38. 20. 1. -16. -39. -45. -51. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.1 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 15.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.98 20.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 16.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 16.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 12.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -46.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -15.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.92 8.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 100% is 15.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 23.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 89% is 15.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 100.0% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 100.0% 88.9% 37.5% Logistic: 89.2% 96.8% 93.7% 91.2% 79.0% 87.0% 36.2% 19.6% Bayesian: 98.1% 98.0% 99.3% 99.0% 96.3% 98.0% 89.9% 0.0% Consensus: 95.8% 98.3% 97.4% 96.1% 90.8% 95.0% 71.7% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##