* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 60 70 80 100 113 118 117 110 98 85 68 55 45 35 25 V (KT) LAND 45 51 60 70 80 100 113 118 117 110 98 85 68 55 45 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 59 66 84 107 122 123 109 89 71 54 42 33 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 5 2 1 4 9 12 12 12 15 18 21 12 8 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 4 8 8 7 6 2 4 13 11 12 SHEAR DIR 342 3 15 13 29 110 134 98 96 87 92 88 101 143 156 157 112 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.7 28.5 27.1 26.4 25.4 25.3 24.0 24.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 161 163 166 161 149 134 127 116 115 101 102 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 86 84 84 83 83 82 76 68 69 71 69 66 61 55 55 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 22 24 32 35 38 41 41 39 35 30 25 20 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 10 18 26 46 63 81 92 75 71 60 86 61 66 37 46 200 MB DIV 129 103 113 115 100 134 94 122 85 75 33 0 -14 -31 0 -4 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 7 2 -4 2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 557 564 571 578 585 595 563 515 470 422 391 362 228 67 0 -11 -30 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.9 19.4 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 105.0 105.6 106.5 107.6 108.4 109.0 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 96 95 95 94 94 95 92 82 48 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 25. 32. 33. 29. 23. 14. 7. 2. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 35. 55. 68. 73. 72. 65. 53. 40. 23. 10. -0. -10. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 18.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 15.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 14.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 11.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -44.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -14.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 94.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.91 8.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 7.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 98% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.8% 93.4% 81.3% 69.5% 65.5% 98.4% 100.0% 64.2% Logistic: 48.4% 91.7% 80.7% 71.9% 53.3% 81.8% 51.5% 35.5% Bayesian: 62.3% 91.7% 92.9% 84.9% 60.6% 97.8% 94.5% 45.3% Consensus: 47.5% 92.3% 85.0% 75.4% 59.8% 92.7% 82.0% 48.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##