* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 100 89 80 71 57 44 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 100 89 80 71 57 44 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 98 87 77 68 53 43 36 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 10 11 13 23 27 20 13 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 5 6 0 -1 5 3 5 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 262 236 238 220 195 214 228 244 242 221 206 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 118 117 113 109 106 100 96 95 93 93 92 92 91 91 91 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 62 59 53 49 41 30 21 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 31 32 30 26 24 23 21 19 15 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 83 77 71 69 75 46 68 54 76 74 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 21 -9 -9 -17 5 -17 14 -7 -26 -32 -27 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 7 9 10 6 2 2 -3 -4 -8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1345 1367 1395 1429 1445 1435 1397 1352 1314 1291 1283 1267 1259 1259 1259 1259 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.5 122.2 123.0 123.8 125.0 125.5 125.6 125.4 125.1 124.9 124.8 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -32. -41. -50. -57. -64. -70. -73. -77. -81. -85. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -28. -31. -33. -30. -27. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -30. -39. -53. -66. -78. -90.-101.-111.-119.-125.-126.-126.-126.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.8 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##