* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022015 06/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 52 68 80 89 94 103 106 103 92 80 69 57 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 52 68 80 89 94 103 106 103 92 80 69 57 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 45 57 73 88 100 109 105 91 75 62 51 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 21 12 10 6 1 2 5 3 4 9 13 20 21 22 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -2 1 2 8 6 7 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 304 309 307 302 314 26 253 255 181 137 67 77 104 92 101 102 101 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 28.8 27.5 26.0 25.3 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 162 161 161 161 160 162 163 163 152 138 122 114 109 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 85 82 81 81 79 75 71 70 73 71 66 55 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 16 19 25 30 37 41 41 37 33 30 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -37 -27 -24 -19 3 24 44 60 73 76 48 43 52 69 79 69 200 MB DIV 100 106 86 121 105 109 103 134 118 134 97 69 52 13 -7 -28 9 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -1 1 3 1 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 555 539 525 525 525 567 606 613 599 562 514 471 474 539 481 447 425 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.5 15.8 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.1 104.3 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.6 105.2 106.1 107.4 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 3 6 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 84 90 92 94 95 95 96 96 95 91 71 27 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 29. 39. 43. 41. 32. 25. 20. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 38. 50. 59. 65. 73. 76. 73. 62. 50. 39. 27. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.87 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -42.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.88 3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.9% 24.2% 17.9% 0.0% 38.3% 54.9% 64.3% Logistic: 2.8% 40.2% 17.2% 8.7% 10.3% 39.2% 71.5% 80.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 14.4% 13.6% 2.7% 3.0% 67.8% 98.1% 89.7% Consensus: 1.4% 30.2% 18.3% 9.8% 4.5% 48.4% 74.8% 78.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##