* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 94 92 81 74 67 58 52 43 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 94 92 81 74 67 58 52 43 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 95 90 84 75 65 57 49 43 38 34 30 25 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 7 2 1 3 2 10 4 7 13 23 27 20 12 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 10 7 6 0 1 -4 0 2 2 0 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 313 304 311 311 152 214 307 292 253 257 242 269 284 292 318 341 17 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 125 126 128 118 113 107 105 99 97 97 96 96 98 99 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 63 60 57 57 54 47 45 39 28 19 12 9 8 8 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 33 32 33 33 29 29 25 24 23 23 18 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 52 56 75 88 109 87 72 68 79 92 104 40 20 38 42 200 MB DIV 71 67 54 70 77 32 38 -11 -30 -12 -15 -12 -28 -31 -54 -37 -22 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 0 3 6 7 3 3 5 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1119 1137 1160 1186 1198 1241 1290 1360 1422 1496 1572 1647 1715 1784 1863 1952 2033 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.1 120.4 121.8 123.3 124.8 126.3 127.5 128.4 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -27. -35. -41. -46. -51. -54. -58. -62. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -2. -7. -8. -8. -8. -12. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -8. -19. -26. -33. -42. -48. -57. -65. -71. -77. -85. -92. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.0 116.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 11.5% 4.2% 3.9% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 10.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##