* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 80 76 69 65 60 54 46 39 34 28 24 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 80 76 69 65 60 54 46 39 34 28 24 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 83 79 74 67 63 58 52 45 39 34 30 26 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 11 6 3 7 8 12 2 5 6 12 15 15 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 0 3 5 6 3 4 0 2 0 3 7 4 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 334 325 322 311 319 329 268 281 288 285 302 294 311 308 309 277 252 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 129 125 124 124 126 125 117 113 108 107 102 98 96 98 101 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 67 68 62 61 60 53 53 49 40 38 33 30 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 32 32 34 32 34 33 32 27 25 23 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 54 70 60 58 78 85 99 76 84 66 61 73 54 83 78 67 200 MB DIV 71 87 55 63 62 73 16 22 -4 -15 -7 -33 -16 -34 -28 -20 1 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 4 0 4 6 9 4 8 5 3 3 1 5 4 2 LAND (KM) 1132 1130 1132 1140 1152 1186 1231 1284 1386 1459 1567 1689 1781 1850 1935 2033 2133 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.2 116.8 117.4 117.9 119.2 120.5 121.9 123.6 125.3 127.0 128.5 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. -36. -39. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 4. 3. 0. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -20. -25. -31. -39. -46. -51. -57. -61. -65. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.2 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 18.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 12.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.4% 6.4% 0.7% 0.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##