* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 82 84 83 80 73 68 62 52 45 39 34 29 26 21 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 82 84 83 80 73 68 62 52 45 39 34 29 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 77 77 76 71 67 63 58 52 45 39 34 31 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 23 12 11 5 5 10 8 11 7 6 1 7 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 2 4 0 4 3 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 350 344 342 327 299 233 249 265 276 268 268 304 260 272 293 308 296 SST (C) 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.3 26.2 26.5 27.1 26.0 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 141 133 126 124 127 134 122 120 112 110 108 103 98 97 98 100 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 67 67 66 61 60 58 55 51 48 42 42 40 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 32 34 33 35 34 34 34 31 28 25 23 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 33 49 57 59 72 85 103 86 83 68 60 49 31 28 15 200 MB DIV 109 71 77 63 73 74 69 20 43 -11 -30 -17 -8 -11 -21 7 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 5 7 2 5 5 9 8 7 5 1 3 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1206 1180 1159 1141 1128 1152 1186 1244 1327 1429 1527 1636 1736 1820 1904 1997 2098 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.5 117.0 118.2 119.6 121.0 122.6 124.3 126.0 127.6 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 11 5 1 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -24. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 13. 10. 3. -2. -8. -18. -25. -31. -36. -41. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.1 114.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 25.2% 21.6% 16.3% 12.1% 16.1% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 36.7% 10.3% 9.0% 6.0% 8.6% 2.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.2% 8.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 23.4% 11.6% 8.9% 6.2% 8.3% 5.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##