* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 75 82 93 97 93 87 79 74 66 59 52 46 41 36 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 75 82 93 97 93 87 79 74 66 59 52 46 41 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 59 67 74 80 88 91 87 77 68 58 50 45 40 34 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 18 19 15 15 12 13 15 14 13 12 14 11 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 -2 -7 -6 0 0 5 7 5 4 8 7 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 31 40 18 354 343 336 312 267 255 230 259 231 247 255 274 256 255 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 155 152 140 134 129 122 119 119 119 119 114 110 107 106 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 79 76 68 69 68 69 69 76 74 72 69 64 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 24 26 29 32 34 36 35 37 35 34 32 29 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 34 30 39 38 37 35 41 55 59 62 58 55 19 0 -22 200 MB DIV 121 120 77 53 70 63 90 85 113 73 60 47 33 -9 -20 20 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 2 5 0 -4 -2 0 3 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1169 1180 1196 1199 1182 1121 1059 996 969 975 958 945 977 1021 1068 1108 1149 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.3 113.7 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.8 116.4 117.1 117.7 118.2 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 72 64 52 40 29 13 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 23. 23. 25. 21. 18. 14. 10. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 32. 43. 47. 44. 37. 29. 24. 16. 9. 2. -4. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.4 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.12 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.0% 51.7% 34.7% 25.4% 18.5% 31.4% 20.2% 14.9% Logistic: 27.7% 57.1% 26.2% 18.5% 14.4% 18.7% 26.2% 10.1% Bayesian: 68.3% 68.9% 62.3% 48.6% 43.7% 41.0% 10.2% 0.8% Consensus: 43.3% 59.2% 41.1% 30.8% 25.5% 30.4% 18.9% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##