* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 43 41 41 39 41 41 48 35 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 43 41 31 32 33 34 40 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 44 43 43 32 33 37 45 53 50 46 44 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 16 17 19 18 19 15 11 11 8 26 44 59 57 48 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 10 14 11 18 23 12 SHEAR DIR 17 327 337 345 347 349 12 4 15 344 308 240 262 270 269 285 282 SST (C) 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.2 22.0 20.4 18.2 15.6 16.6 8.5 5.4 3.5 10.0 10.7 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 94 97 98 100 100 96 84 78 74 71 75 70 71 71 73 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 81 82 83 84 81 73 70 68 68 71 69 71 N/A 72 72 71 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.0 -58.1 -58.3 -58.7 -58.6 -59.0 -58.8 -59.5 -58.8 -59.0 -58.2 -57.8 -57.0 -54.5 -50.1 -46.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 1.0 3.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 4 7 5 8 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 44 47 51 55 59 60 65 63 55 54 57 56 52 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 19 17 15 13 13 12 12 13 21 17 11 10 15 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -4 -19 -33 -33 -51 -88 -83 -97 -65 -29 71 94 16 -15 115 216 200 MB DIV -16 -25 0 -11 -36 0 -7 7 5 32 16 56 59 0 -23 -18 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 4 9 23 6 90 174 151 55 -1 1 LAND (KM) 246 232 217 199 181 124 56 5 -63 22 200 236 254 536 1478 607 46 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.0 32.4 33.0 33.7 35.0 36.7 39.0 41.6 44.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.6 77.7 77.8 77.9 78.3 78.7 78.8 77.8 75.7 72.1 66.8 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 10 15 21 29 40 45 46 44 43 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -5. -15. -24. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 25. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -5. -11. -18. -19. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. -1. 1. 1. 8. -5. -20. -30. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 77.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/08/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 44 45 43 41 31 32 33 34 40 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 43 41 39 29 30 31 32 38 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 37 35 25 26 27 28 34 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 30 28 18 19 20 21 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT