* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 32 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 32 24 18 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 56 60 63 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 6 -1 1 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 211 219 226 232 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.7 27.5 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 152 140 133 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 51 49 48 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 109 118 108 95 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 43 45 -20 -18 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 0 -5 0 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 276 195 75 -41 -156 -371 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 107.8 107.3 106.9 106.4 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 48 24 7 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -22. -36. -55. -72. -85. -91. -96.-100.-106.-116.-121. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -10. -7. -6. -7. -6. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -28. -31. -34. -43. -56. -71. -85. -98.-104.-109.-114.-120.-130.-135. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.9 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##