* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 47 36 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 47 36 28 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 48 39 32 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 47 52 56 61 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 8 4 1 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 214 215 221 230 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 29.1 29.2 28.7 27.7 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 157 157 152 142 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 56 51 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 80 104 110 103 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 66 35 50 -17 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 9 5 -7 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 338 268 195 90 -15 -226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 108.4 107.9 107.6 107.2 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 33 49 29 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -27. -37. -49. -60. -70. -75. -80. -84. -89. -94. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -24. -32. -37. -44. -51. -60. -70. -80. -89. -94. -99.-103.-108.-114.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##