* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 95 90 72 55 34 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 95 90 72 55 34 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 95 95 91 84 67 48 34 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 14 23 29 34 45 46 45 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 11 7 11 17 12 9 3 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 213 236 221 226 227 219 219 230 245 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.6 28.2 28.8 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 153 152 149 140 139 144 150 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 74 74 62 49 41 40 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 22 21 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -12 -7 3 26 49 70 68 42 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 120 125 132 127 61 49 -8 10 -25 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 10 19 19 17 -1 1 5 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 834 794 770 720 676 502 356 247 189 144 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.7 18.4 19.7 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.4 109.8 109.2 108.8 108.8 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 35 31 30 24 9 7 15 27 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -31. -34. -37. -40. -41. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -8. -20. -23. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 5. -0. -18. -35. -56. -64. -70. -75. -78. -80. -85. -87. -90. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.1 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.8% 31.7% 23.2% 18.1% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 36.3% 18.5% 9.3% 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 64.8% 34.8% 45.1% 30.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 47.0% 28.3% 25.9% 18.6% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##