* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 77 84 90 85 69 52 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 77 84 90 85 69 52 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 68 74 79 83 75 60 46 36 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 6 6 15 26 32 34 31 35 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 4 13 16 15 10 8 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 304 270 268 219 199 212 230 231 242 249 258 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 162 158 152 150 143 142 149 153 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 73 74 74 70 59 47 42 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 21 20 16 12 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -11 -17 -16 -5 11 39 40 62 34 1 -28 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 66 90 134 155 139 117 40 15 -3 -6 -40 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 3 12 18 11 0 3 7 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 888 878 881 857 836 756 632 482 356 271 244 225 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.7 18.1 19.3 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 107.1 108.2 109.1 109.9 110.5 110.3 109.6 108.9 108.3 107.9 107.9 107.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 29 39 41 31 24 10 8 23 44 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -21. -22. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 29. 35. 30. 14. -3. -17. -27. -36. -40. -42. -43. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.6 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 16.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 15.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 16.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 13.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 16.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 11.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -13.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 94% is 7.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 14.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 80% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.5% 94.3% 85.7% 75.1% 59.2% 79.9% 45.9% 14.5% Logistic: 62.2% 86.0% 78.2% 71.3% 41.9% 64.8% 11.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 50.6% 90.6% 90.4% 85.1% 26.9% 73.0% 38.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.8% 90.3% 84.8% 77.2% 42.7% 72.6% 31.8% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##