* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 41 45 53 60 68 71 62 50 39 27 27 26 25 25 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 41 45 53 60 68 71 62 50 39 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 38 43 48 46 36 26 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 5 7 3 6 14 21 28 34 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 8 22 14 4 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 252 341 8 32 295 246 214 182 220 243 261 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.4 29.8 29.1 28.7 28.3 29.1 29.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 151 153 159 164 156 152 148 156 157 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 67 72 74 76 76 75 74 76 68 56 50 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 20 22 26 26 21 16 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 14 8 5 4 6 6 27 29 62 71 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 72 43 48 64 113 189 208 193 42 14 -29 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 7 17 20 -3 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 812 845 879 888 899 885 818 691 558 361 190 45 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.1 11.1 12.8 14.9 16.9 18.8 20.7 22.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.3 103.0 103.9 104.8 106.9 108.5 109.5 109.6 108.7 107.5 106.3 105.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 16 17 15 17 46 33 26 10 52 26 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -16. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 15. 17. 11. 3. -1. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 10. 18. 25. 33. 36. 27. 15. 4. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.5 101.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 22.0% 20.7% 15.3% 10.9% 19.5% 29.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 15.7% 6.0% 2.9% 0.9% 10.0% 22.2% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.7% 8.9% 6.1% 3.9% 9.8% 17.2% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##