* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 49 41 36 29 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 49 41 36 29 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 51 44 38 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 16 28 44 68 72 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 11 6 0 -13 -16 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 331 304 299 291 277 262 250 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 18.6 17.2 15.3 14.4 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 68 68 69 68 64 61 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.4 -50.0 -48.8 -47.9 -47.2 -46.7 -46.2 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.7 2.9 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 49 56 55 46 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 24 26 24 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 49 133 222 212 211 225 186 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 46 62 70 61 38 27 10 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 29 57 76 150 107 24 -3 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1469 1664 1857 1689 1578 1099 824 712 595 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 37.2 39.2 41.4 43.5 46.8 48.2 48.6 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.4 159.3 156.1 152.5 148.8 142.7 139.4 137.8 136.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 32 34 35 31 20 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -18. -24. -28. -32. -37. -40. -44. -50. -55. -60. -65. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -17. -40. -63. -81. -88. -95.-106.-119.-135.-145. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 25. 29. 30. 27. 22. 14. 11. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 7. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -23. -29. -36. -38. -45. -66. -88.-108.-123.-140.-163.-183.-203.-209. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.2 162.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##