* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 53 45 39 31 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 53 45 39 31 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 52 45 39 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 12 18 28 53 70 72 61 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 13 11 6 0 -12 -12 -7 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 352 337 317 302 282 271 260 247 239 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 20.9 18.8 17.2 15.3 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.7 11.7 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 76 68 68 68 66 62 61 62 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.1 -48.9 -47.5 -46.6 -46.4 -47.6 -49.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 50 52 59 48 38 45 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 19 23 27 25 20 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 36 125 202 181 206 182 132 92 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 37 41 57 65 48 32 13 25 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 14 33 37 71 122 69 36 7 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1336 1466 1653 1855 1684 1383 1015 835 589 256 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.3 37.1 39.3 41.4 45.2 47.3 48.5 50.4 53.3 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.6 161.9 159.2 155.8 152.4 145.8 141.8 140.0 137.8 135.1 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 29 31 34 32 24 13 10 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 22 CX,CY: 14/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. -43. -48. -53. -58. -63. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -15. -38. -60. -76. -83. -90.-101.-113.-129.-139. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 13. 22. 29. 31. 27. 21. 10. 5. -1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 3. -13. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -20. -26. -34. -35. -40. -62. -96.-121.-135.-150.-173.-193.-214.-220. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.4 164.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##