* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 54 47 37 34 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 54 47 37 34 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 59 50 43 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 13 18 45 65 71 60 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 0 -10 -18 -11 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 326 344 334 313 295 276 259 251 250 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 22.2 21.1 18.9 17.5 15.0 13.7 13.7 13.9 13.7 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 89 78 68 68 68 65 63 62 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.5 -48.4 -47.7 -47.0 -46.8 -47.2 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 52 50 58 60 48 49 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 22 24 26 24 22 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 4 43 106 188 183 170 165 144 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 29 37 38 69 52 42 27 21 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 32 27 29 30 169 90 2 -20 -15 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1265 1333 1449 1630 1867 1641 1138 759 458 193 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.4 35.0 36.9 38.8 42.9 46.1 48.3 49.9 50.9 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.8 164.7 162.5 159.4 156.2 148.7 142.5 138.3 134.6 131.0 127.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 28 32 33 31 23 16 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -19. -23. -28. -33. -36. -41. -46. -51. -55. -60. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -12. -32. -54. -72. -78. -85. -94.-106.-121.-130. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 12. 20. 26. 29. 26. 21. 13. 9. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 7. 4. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -18. -28. -31. -32. -48. -70. -99.-112.-127.-150.-168.-189.-196. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.7 166.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##