* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 48 45 41 38 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 48 45 41 38 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 45 40 30 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 11 15 17 16 25 22 45 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 1 7 4 5 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 316 311 304 294 328 319 299 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.3 24.9 24.4 21.8 18.1 15.0 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 127 114 110 85 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.3 -51.9 -50.8 -49.7 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 57 55 59 61 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 19 19 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -43 -54 -45 -26 -9 61 113 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 2 7 28 44 46 60 51 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 12 17 27 31 42 137 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1177 1237 1269 1320 1485 1820 1581 1257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.0 28.9 30.2 31.5 34.9 38.6 42.5 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.8 169.8 169.8 169.0 168.1 164.4 158.8 151.9 145.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 19 26 31 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -17. -30. -39. -42. -45. -49. -55. -64. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. -0. -3. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -15. -27. -35. -42. -50. -61. -70. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.0 169.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##