* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 36 43 44 44 43 43 43 42 41 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 33 35 35 34 34 34 33 32 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 30 31 31 28 26 23 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 11 8 6 12 11 15 20 23 23 27 25 25 26 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -4 -3 -6 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 243 243 245 239 188 197 178 207 223 237 259 272 275 273 281 281 285 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 148 154 154 141 144 150 152 152 152 153 152 153 153 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 133 140 140 127 130 136 138 138 136 136 135 135 136 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 9 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 72 68 67 66 64 58 50 40 40 39 42 46 55 60 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 9 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 74 69 70 75 69 56 51 41 34 39 40 24 5 1 -10 200 MB DIV 39 40 47 41 26 22 14 -12 7 14 -1 -20 0 3 7 12 17 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 1 1 2 4 5 5 6 4 2 LAND (KM) 77 34 0 -39 -90 -81 -31 30 124 228 291 298 314 339 301 248 196 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.4 90.9 90.4 89.9 88.9 88.0 87.3 86.4 85.4 84.7 84.2 83.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 30 27 6 24 33 47 51 51 58 69 82 88 92 91 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 91.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 33 35 35 34 34 34 33 32 34 32 18HR AGO 30 29 29 26 25 25 25 31 33 33 32 32 32 31 30 32 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 22 22 28 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 29 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 25 27 27 26 26 26 25 24 26 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT