* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 58 50 40 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 58 50 40 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 41 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 17 12 6 3 7 18 28 39 31 41 64 66 67 55 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 1 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -7 -6 -10 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 231 220 210 176 271 295 291 317 328 302 285 272 263 254 253 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.4 24.7 22.8 19.3 16.1 14.5 13.7 15.7 16.0 14.6 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 142 141 136 128 112 94 67 67 67 65 62 61 63 63 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.0 -51.7 -50.2 -49.5 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 47 49 55 63 64 65 65 66 69 53 51 46 53 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 16 17 19 17 18 18 21 22 26 24 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -18 -31 -34 -36 -54 -66 -77 -86 5 118 121 146 101 91 92 141 200 MB DIV 7 -23 -9 2 5 9 -3 39 17 53 44 26 31 11 27 20 26 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 2 2 6 18 32 54 79 128 176 46 -10 -25 -20 -42 LAND (KM) 709 769 834 891 952 1037 1081 1159 1336 1702 1703 1408 795 579 413 113 -188 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 27.0 28.8 31.0 33.9 37.5 41.2 45.0 48.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.6 168.1 168.5 168.8 168.8 167.8 166.0 162.8 158.1 152.5 146.0 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 9 12 17 23 28 29 30 21 12 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 18 19 20 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 13. 10. 5. 0. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -6. -15. -24. -36. -49. -63. -76. -94.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 5. 6. 6. 10. 10. 13. 10. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 23. 15. 5. -4. -13. -30. -48. -71.-102.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 167.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING