* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 54 60 58 53 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 54 60 58 53 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 40 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 19 16 9 9 2 9 13 20 25 39 77 74 77 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 4 -3 3 9 5 0 -15 -8 -10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 237 225 206 186 164 307 285 297 318 295 284 279 283 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.5 26.8 25.2 23.8 20.7 17.3 15.0 14.3 16.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 143 143 138 131 116 104 74 67 67 65 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -52.8 -51.6 -50.2 -49.8 -50.5 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 45 46 51 56 58 61 67 70 64 45 39 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 17 17 19 18 19 20 23 22 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -24 -32 -38 -41 -61 -56 -49 40 84 62 36 40 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 -22 7 14 4 27 21 40 42 54 17 -11 -27 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 6 5 0 2 8 23 45 64 120 110 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 676 738 805 873 946 1062 1121 1172 1276 1543 1802 1552 1081 1088 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.2 24.9 26.5 28.1 29.8 32.4 36.0 39.7 43.5 47.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.8 167.4 167.9 168.4 168.9 169.4 169.0 168.0 165.6 161.5 156.1 149.5 142.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 13 21 27 30 31 20 26 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 23 19 17 20 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 14. 11. 7. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -27. -42. -57. -64. -75. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. -3. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 13. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 19. 25. 23. 18. 11. -0. -22. -49. -59. -73. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 166.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING