* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 54 56 62 72 77 83 85 82 77 66 57 53 49 48 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 54 56 62 72 77 83 85 82 77 66 57 53 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 54 58 65 73 78 78 73 62 47 36 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 24 17 13 7 5 6 1 11 19 26 25 36 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 2 0 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 223 228 218 214 201 130 112 300 276 282 287 289 296 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.0 25.6 22.6 20.3 18.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 147 145 142 140 137 124 121 90 70 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -49.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 46 48 49 47 47 48 51 59 65 64 54 59 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 22 25 26 28 28 27 27 26 28 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -17 -14 -17 -28 -35 -39 -42 -44 -33 -1 122 174 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 61 22 20 13 13 -5 7 0 34 29 68 38 63 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 5 2 -1 0 2 6 20 35 50 16 128 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 438 504 563 626 733 842 937 1018 1095 1190 1347 1571 1918 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.6 27.1 28.8 31.0 33.6 36.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.7 164.4 165.1 165.7 166.3 167.2 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.0 166.6 164.3 162.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 10 14 16 27 38 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 33 34 34 32 23 19 19 12 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -1. 1. 7. 17. 22. 28. 30. 27. 22. 11. 2. -2. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.7 163.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##