* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 60 59 60 64 66 68 72 73 70 68 61 50 39 V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 60 59 60 64 66 68 72 73 70 68 61 50 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 60 59 55 54 55 59 63 67 70 70 67 59 47 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 31 36 35 33 25 22 19 12 9 4 13 15 11 9 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 5 0 -1 5 4 7 17 20 SHEAR DIR 280 274 260 256 254 240 257 234 234 203 287 274 270 233 230 239 261 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 25.7 25.1 24.3 23.3 20.9 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 147 146 144 145 144 142 144 139 120 114 106 97 75 67 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.2 -50.8 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 52 51 53 52 54 56 58 62 62 56 58 49 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 14 13 15 17 19 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -31 -22 -30 -25 -20 -32 -26 -31 -21 -22 -8 21 -16 38 86 173 200 MB DIV 8 32 40 25 21 34 4 22 20 30 44 39 13 32 33 10 31 700-850 TADV 5 0 -7 -7 -4 0 0 2 0 0 4 10 23 25 4 8 21 LAND (KM) 132 137 184 263 350 522 668 777 885 992 1091 1206 1331 1198 1345 1571 1864 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 22.1 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.8 27.2 28.9 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.2 161.0 161.8 162.7 163.6 165.3 166.6 167.5 168.3 169.0 169.3 169.4 169.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 8 8 11 11 15 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 39 35 28 29 26 22 25 24 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -1. 1. 3. 7. 8. 5. 3. -4. -15. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.6 160.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##