* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 62 53 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 62 53 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 73 63 55 49 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 33 30 34 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 17 15 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 212 230 250 262 263 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 15.7 11.1 10.2 12.2 11.1 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 78 74 73 74 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 76 72 72 73 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -53.3 -51.5 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 0.2 1.1 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 47 49 49 40 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 31 27 23 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -23 -40 -47 -37 25 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 92 59 6 -26 -10 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 69 47 60 62 17 -87 -170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 516 327 212 620 1049 995 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 43.8 46.6 48.7 50.8 53.9 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 54.4 50.3 44.5 38.8 25.2 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 41 42 43 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 34 CX,CY: 22/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -24. -32. -40. -46. -51. -55. -58. -62. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -27. -43. -55. -66. -74. -78. -81. -84. -88. -93. -95. -97. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 41.0 58.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 69 62 53 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 73 66 57 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 60 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 61 45 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT