* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 65 62 61 60 61 64 67 67 70 75 77 77 73 68 64 V (KT) LAND 70 67 65 62 61 60 61 64 67 67 70 75 77 77 73 68 64 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 63 61 57 55 55 56 59 63 68 73 77 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 22 19 25 27 27 24 23 17 22 14 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 8 5 0 0 4 -1 2 0 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 280 262 272 277 258 256 244 224 227 224 209 249 279 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 146 146 146 147 147 148 147 147 145 137 141 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 60 56 54 52 55 57 57 62 63 64 63 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 26 28 30 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -20 -14 -25 -30 0 -9 0 4 -6 -3 12 -3 15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 78 40 -2 -3 60 41 35 26 10 8 18 12 38 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 4 0 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 242 222 201 212 311 435 563 673 784 870 953 1046 922 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.9 26.1 27.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.3 160.0 160.8 161.5 163.0 164.4 165.7 166.7 167.6 168.1 168.4 168.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 3 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 47 30 29 34 37 32 33 29 22 21 21 12 16 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 15. 16. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -3. -0. 5. 7. 7. 3. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.0 158.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##