* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 68 61 45 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 68 61 45 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 67 58 51 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 29 33 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 9 11 14 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 213 219 235 251 267 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 23.4 16.0 10.7 10.2 10.9 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 102 79 73 73 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 97 76 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -52.6 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.7 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 43 48 51 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 34 31 25 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -27 -28 -59 -55 -9 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 103 80 62 19 -30 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 80 92 43 56 50 -18 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 700 542 330 262 602 1444 565 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 41.0 43.8 46.4 48.9 52.3 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 57.8 54.6 49.7 44.8 31.5 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 37 40 42 44 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 30 CX,CY: 15/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -22. -29. -36. -42. -46. -50. -54. -57. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. -27. -29. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -19. -35. -51. -61. -68. -72. -75. -79. -83. -86. -88. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 38.2 61.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 505.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 73 68 61 45 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 70 63 47 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 71 64 48 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 63 47 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT