* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 75 71 66 51 31 22 25 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 75 71 66 51 31 22 26 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 71 65 57 44 37 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 25 23 30 33 42 28 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 12 11 11 13 13 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 204 211 225 235 266 283 273 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.4 24.0 14.9 10.7 11.9 11.2 13.5 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 106 77 73 74 74 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 100 75 72 72 72 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -51.7 -50.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 -0.4 0.2 1.2 4.0 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 37 39 42 47 49 44 53 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 34 34 33 26 19 22 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -18 -26 -45 -58 -49 17 126 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 131 98 80 65 -33 -19 17 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 39 73 79 58 42 41 -22 -130 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 919 740 567 356 256 1082 982 98 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 38.1 40.7 43.5 46.3 50.6 53.1 54.7 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 60.3 57.9 53.8 49.8 38.3 24.8 10.8 -3.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 32 37 41 42 43 43 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 19 CX,CY: 10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -36. -42. -46. -50. -53. -57. -58. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -16. -15. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -9. -14. -29. -49. -58. -55. -58. -60. -62. -66. -70. -74. -78. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.5 62.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 568.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 75 71 66 51 31 22 26 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 74 69 54 34 25 29 27 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 67 52 32 23 27 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 50 30 21 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT