* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 65 64 62 61 63 62 66 70 72 74 75 73 68 V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 65 64 62 61 63 62 66 70 72 74 75 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 68 68 64 62 59 57 56 59 66 75 81 83 83 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 15 18 18 22 24 19 21 9 15 13 9 9 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 1 4 5 1 3 -2 0 2 6 6 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 277 264 255 270 277 276 272 254 238 243 250 214 210 191 276 297 286 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 138 141 144 142 143 144 147 148 148 148 146 142 136 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 60 62 64 58 55 53 54 58 59 56 62 64 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 17 19 19 22 25 28 31 32 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -18 -13 -12 -11 -25 -14 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 14 35 45 53 43 200 MB DIV 55 66 44 56 57 53 23 55 51 35 39 30 28 24 27 55 38 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 2 2 4 1 4 8 6 3 3 4 10 11 18 LAND (KM) 330 241 195 186 228 211 165 164 260 408 536 650 781 741 867 950 1029 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.7 155.7 156.6 157.3 158.0 159.2 160.2 161.4 162.7 164.2 165.4 166.4 167.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 9 9 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 26 38 48 46 27 36 39 31 35 31 21 20 11 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 0. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -3. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.1 154.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.5% 4.4% 2.8% 2.0% 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 5.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##