* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 96 94 91 81 61 40 27 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 100 96 94 91 81 61 40 27 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 99 94 91 88 72 52 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 25 23 14 21 28 33 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 6 9 13 11 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 220 220 203 197 221 257 279 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.1 26.4 25.9 25.2 14.2 12.4 10.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 122 118 114 76 75 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 111 109 107 74 73 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 33 34 35 38 44 52 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 32 33 34 36 29 24 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 7 -3 -7 -36 -55 -23 35 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 69 81 122 118 38 24 -12 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 22 32 44 60 46 65 -34 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1068 1077 987 834 707 245 749 1387 654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.8 34.4 36.6 38.8 44.5 49.4 53.0 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 64.6 63.5 61.6 59.8 53.0 42.8 30.9 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 23 27 32 40 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -28. -42. -55. -65. -71. -76. -79. -83. -85. -86. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -16. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -5. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -24. -44. -65. -78. -83. -85. -88. -90. -91. -92. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 31.1 65.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 870.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 19( 41) 12( 48) 8( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 96 94 91 81 61 40 27 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 100 98 95 85 65 44 31 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 99 96 86 66 45 32 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 82 62 41 28 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 56 35 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 75 55 34 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 100 96 87 81 77 57 36 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS