* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 102 99 97 90 76 49 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 106 102 99 97 90 76 49 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 93 91 82 61 47 42 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 20 19 13 26 34 39 46 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 9 10 10 10 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 208 224 224 198 212 243 272 288 298 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.4 25.9 22.4 9.8 10.8 11.0 13.1 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 119 122 118 96 73 73 73 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 108 108 111 109 91 72 72 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.3 1.1 2.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 35 35 37 39 45 51 48 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 32 33 34 34 24 21 24 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 13 0 -6 -37 -70 3 59 92 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 77 55 69 102 59 25 7 13 8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 20 27 40 49 93 58 8 21 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1073 1051 1058 961 815 530 350 1141 1024 285 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.4 32.9 34.8 36.7 41.6 46.7 51.3 54.3 55.8 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.5 65.6 64.7 63.3 61.9 56.9 48.4 37.6 25.7 13.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 20 22 27 36 41 41 38 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -9. -16. -29. -44. -58. -71. -80. -84. -88. -92. -93. -94. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -11. -17. -15. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -20. -34. -61. -79. -85. -98.-101.-103.-103.-104.-105.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 29.9 66.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 876.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 24( 46) 20( 57) 12( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 106 102 99 97 90 76 49 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 105 102 100 93 79 52 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 101 94 80 53 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 91 77 50 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 84 70 43 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 106 97 91 88 83 69 42 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 106 102 93 87 83 69 42 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS