* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 60 61 61 59 60 59 61 64 65 66 63 59 56 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 60 61 61 59 60 59 61 64 65 66 63 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 58 57 56 55 54 53 54 58 63 67 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 7 10 12 18 20 23 19 19 18 20 23 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -3 -3 0 3 3 0 0 -1 -1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 280 286 267 265 295 288 287 270 266 256 257 230 218 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 137 136 138 142 141 141 142 145 148 146 147 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 61 64 62 57 55 52 55 57 57 58 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 16 16 15 15 14 17 17 19 21 24 26 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 -2 -13 -9 -6 -30 -18 -3 -2 0 2 16 16 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 41 49 50 53 77 59 11 34 46 69 29 7 14 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 2 4 7 9 5 9 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 559 449 347 259 206 215 230 204 122 161 254 356 475 526 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.5 154.5 155.5 156.4 157.8 158.7 159.5 160.4 161.7 162.7 163.6 164.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 5 5 6 6 6 5 7 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 14 23 46 49 38 30 41 36 30 31 18 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 5. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 8. 4. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 152.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.9% 18.8% 10.8% 8.5% 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 8.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##