* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 106 102 98 86 61 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 106 102 98 86 61 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 108 102 96 93 90 72 51 40 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 14 18 19 23 29 34 44 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 0 2 6 10 14 5 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 212 210 224 221 203 227 254 284 301 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.4 25.1 14.1 11.4 10.2 12.5 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 121 119 122 113 76 74 73 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 111 109 107 112 105 74 72 72 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.5 -0.1 0.7 1.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 35 33 33 40 46 52 50 49 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 32 32 35 36 29 20 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 32 32 17 1 -28 -59 -33 34 29 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 105 89 63 67 112 46 -17 3 -15 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 17 19 25 36 51 57 15 28 76 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1040 1077 1056 1068 960 646 234 699 1457 586 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.0 31.3 33.0 34.7 39.4 44.6 49.5 53.1 55.5 57.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 66.4 65.6 64.6 63.5 59.8 52.9 43.5 32.0 18.7 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 19 24 32 39 40 41 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 6 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -29. -45. -60. -74. -83. -88. -92. -96. -97. -98. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -13. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. -5. -17. -23. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -29. -54. -81. -96.-109.-112.-114.-113.-113.-113.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 28.7 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 973.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 29( 51) 24( 63) 21( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 110 106 102 98 86 61 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 112 108 104 100 88 63 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 103 99 87 62 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 97 85 60 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 92 80 55 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 91 79 54 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 110 101 95 91 79 54 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS